Dallas has been terrible as a home favorite since the early part of the season, going 2-26-2 ATS in their last 30 home chalk roles. However, a look deep inside those two covers shows amazing similarities to this game, and there are other big scheduling reasons to go with the home team in this one as well. First off, Denver playing second of back to back road games (in Orlando last night) which is also their third road game in four nights, and fifth in seven! That is a very tough scheduling dynamic, and playing a high scoring team like Dallas with tired legs is not conducive to success. Denver is 2-7 ATS this season in the second of back to back away games, 0-4 in those cases as underdogs, losing by 25, 10, 16, and 14 points, with the latter coming against the Celtics just four days ago. As for Dallas, mentioned that they only have two covers in their last 30 home games, but in both cases they were rested and small chalk against a ! key Western Conference foe that was playing in the second of back to back games, the exact situation in front of the Mavs today! Dallas is not covering at home against the lesser lights, but when they have had the advantage of great situations and extreme motivation they have gotten the job done. Against the Lakers one Dallas writer called it "the most important regular season game in years" and the Mavs responded. If that was the most important this is the second, as a win here would be a massive help to the Mavs in their quest for home court advantage until the Western Conference Finals, and since those semis right now would pit the Mavs and Nuggets, know that Rick Carlisle will have his team very ready for this one. Just in case that was not enough motivation, remember it was Denver that knocked the Mavs out of the playoffs last year (winning three games in Denver) and the last time these two teams met the Nuggets won by 36 in Denver, hitting 61% from beyond the arc alon! g the way. The revenge and "no way they are going to be that h! ot again " factors point to the home team in both cases. Lots, lots of reasons to like Dallas here, and they get the call as our NBA Play of the Month!...just wished I played it in the only tourney I lost yesterday!!!!!
POSTED BY: dante17
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